Ron Paul has two paths to the GOP nomination. The first path is that he wins early . For this to happen and for Ron Paul to win the Republican presidential nomination, he must win Iowa and win or place a strong second in New Hampshire. Even a second place finish in New Hampshire, especially if Ron Paul comes in a close second slightly behind putative front-runner Mitt Romney in his backyard, would be a huge victory for the Paul campaign, because the Texas congressman could rightfully proclaim that he is now the front-runner.
A win in Iowa will create a nationwide buzz and build a huge head of steam as the campaign rolls into the “Live Free or Die” state a week later. The momentum from an Iowa victory may very likely propel Paul over the top in New Hampshire. Romney has inadvertently created a must win situation in New Hampshire. If Romney after months of polling at 40% loses New Hampshire to Paul, Romney’s campaign is over. On the other hand, at best, Romney would be seriously crippled and will not be able to string together victories like Paul will be doing if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire. Paul may simply run away with the nomination if this should happen.
Paul however, needs only to do well in the first two campaign contests, which, leads to Paul’s second path to the GOP nomination, placing in the top three in Iowa and New Hampshire. Although, a second place finish in Iowa would be a “win” for Rep. Paul because the mainstream media have discounted his campaign from day one while the pundits have been asserting that the libertarian Republican congressman is way “out of step” with his party’s voters.
Walking away with a second or third in Iowa and New Hampshire will keep Paul competitive as the race goes on. Remembering that the GOP contest is proportional before April first, Paul needs to stay competitive in the delegate hunt. If he remains competitive in a multi-candidate race through April 1 he has a good shot of leveling a knockout punch when Texas comes around. Paul will win his home state of Texas in this scenario, especially since Perry will probably be out after a few of the early contests. Texas will be a winner take all state, and an awful lot of delegates will fall Paul’s way.
The evidence is building from news reports and recent polls that Rep. Paul’s campaign is more than gaining traction in Iowa. The congressman is highlighting the signature issues that he has promoted throughout his political career, a federal government that adheres to the constitution, reducing spending; ending the Federal Reserve’s legalized counterfeiting, promoting a noninterventionist foreign policy and defending individual liberty. These issues are resonating with voters because Rep. Paul is getting more than the infamous 89 seconds he got during the first hours of the CBS debate when he speaks before large and growing audiences throughout Iowa and New Hampshire.
In other words, when potential voters hear his well-reasoned arguments for balancing the federal budget in three years and eliminating five cabinet departments, why would any fiscal conservative not want to vote for Rep. Paul? Moreover, when Rep. Paul laces in to the Federal Reserve for creating the bubbles and its zero interest rate policy, which have caused so much pain on Main Street and redistributed income to the bankers and speculators on Wall Street, the crowds go wild.
However, Rep. Paul’s biggest challenge is convincing more voters that the federal government’s bipartisan interventionist foreign policy is harming America. He is also gaining traction on this issue because more Americans are realizing there is a huge difference between necessary national defense and current military spending. The former makes us safe from potential adversaries while the latter creates enemies overseas and enriches the military industrial complex at the expense of the average American household.
As Rep. Paul has repeatedly said in the debates when he is given time to speak, our attempt to impose “democracy” on other countries is backfiring. Islamists seem to be getting the upper hand in nations where the Obama administration’s interventionist policies helped overthrow leaders that were allies or at least not hostile to the United States. We may be seeing another example of ‘be careful what you wish for” in the swamp of Middle Eastpolitics.
Iran, we have been told repeatedly by Obama and the rest of his administration and the neocons at think tanks and in the media, is a threat to the security of the United States should it develop a nuclear weapon, which would be seen by the Israeli government as a threat to its national security. The Israeli government is responsible for the territorial integrity of its people and would have to deal with any threat to its sovereignty in the region. For the United Statesto assert that it is the policeman of the Middle East, a policy that has caused untold misery to the people in Iraq and Afghanistan, while costing the American people over one trillion dollars and counting, all of which has been borrowed, has been self-defeating. One of the great tragedies for America since the 9/11 attacks has been the deaths of thousands ofU.S.military personnel and the maiming, many for life, of tens of thousands of young soldiers.
As Ron Paul has said consistently, our foreign policy has backfired. The costs—human and financial–keep rising, and the only way to have a constitutional, pro American foreign policy is to bring the troops home and create a national defense that protects America and does not go overseas to destroy monsters.
If GOP voters want limited government, an end to the most massive redistribution of income in the history of the world from average workers to the financial and business elites in the country and an end to the bipartisan foreign policy that is draining our economy and undermining our national security, then Ron Paul will win both Iowa and New Hampshire and then go into the South, Nevada and the other early primary states as the visionary congressman, defender of liberty and agent of change we desperately need to restore the values that created America.
Ron Paul is the only GOP candidate who has been consistent for more than 35 years in public life in diagnosing and providing the right prescriptions for what needs to be fixed in America. Romney, Gingrich, Cain, Perry and the rest of the GOP field either have been clueless in the past or have supported the very policies they claim they are opposed to now.
Ron Paul, a man of courage and integrity, will win both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. If GOP voters embrace the very principles they claim to support, and that the congressman has been articulating for decades, a limited government, and constitutional republic, then they will eventually come to support Ron Paul.
My prediction is that by May 2012 with the GOP nomination locked up, a new sensation will be sweeping the nation similar to Beatlemania, except it will be a 76-year-old country doctor with a prescription to save America.